Couverture

Executive Summary

An air attack on Iran by Israeli or US forces would be aimed at setting back Iran’s nuclear programme by at least five years. A ground offensive by the United States to terminate the regime is not feasible given other commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not be attempted. An air attack would involve the systematic destruction of research, development, support and training centres for nuclear and missile programmes and the killing of as many technically competent people as possible. A US attack, which would be larger than anything Israel could mount, would also involve comprehensive destruction of Iranian air defence capabilities and attacks designed to pre-empt Iranian retaliation. This would require destruction of Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities close to Iraq and of regular or irregular naval forces that could disrupt Gulf oil transit routes. Although US or Israeli attacks would severely damage Iranian nuclear and missile programmes, Iran would have many methods of responding in the months and years that followed. These would include disruption of Gulf oil production and exports, in spite of US attempts at pre-emption, systematic support for insurgents in Iraq, and encouragement to associates in Southern Lebanon to stage attacks on Israel. There would be considerable national unity in Iran in the face of military action by the United States or Israel, including a revitalised Revolutionary Guard. One key response from Iran would be a determination to reconstruct a nuclear programme and develop it rapidly into a nuclear weapons capability, with this accompanied by withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This would require further attacks. A military operation against Iran would not, therefore, be a short-term matter but would set in motion a complex and long-lasting confrontation. It follows that military action should be firmly ruled out and alternative strategies developed.

Paul Rogers

Paul Rogers is Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford and Global Security Consultant to Oxford Research Group. Paul has worked in the field of international security, arms control and political violence for over 20 years. He lectures at universities and defence colleges in several countries, and his publications include 20 books and over 100 papers. His latest book, Iraq and the War on Terror : Twelve Months of Insurgency, 2004/2005, was published by I.B. Tauris in November 2005. Paul is a regular commentator on global security issues in both the national and international media.

Oxford Research Group (ORG)

Oxford Research Group (ORG) is an independent non-governmental organisation and registered charity, which works together with others to promote a more sustainable approach to security for the UK and the world.

Since 1982, we’ve been building trust between policy-makers, academics, the military and civil society. Along with our internationally recognised consultants, we combine detailed knowledge with an understanding of political decision-making, and many years expertise in facilitating constructive dialogue.

We were awarded the Niwano Peace Prize in 2003 for our work on the promotion of disarmament and non-violent methods for resolving conflict. In April 2005, we were named one of the top 20 think tanks in the UK by The Independent newspaper.

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Iran consequences of a war